This week is fairly light with regard to scheduled economic releases. However, it does bring us another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for the markets to digest. There are three reports due to be released this week, but none of them are considered to be of high importance.
February’s Housing Starts will be released early Tuesday, but this will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. It is expected to show an increase in starts from January to February.
The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and is expected keep key short-term interest rates unchanged. What will probably cause volatility in the markets is the post-meeting statement. Traders are hoping to pick up an indication of future Fed moves, particularly if the Fed expects to cut rates anytime soon. The meeting is the second of four meetings this year that last two days and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. Therefore, look for afternoon changes in rates Wednesday.
The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% decline, indicating that economic activity will likely slow in the coming weeks. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
February’s Existing Home Sales report will be released late Friday morning. It will also likely have little impact on mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Since it is the only data of the day, it may cause enough movement in bond prices to lead to a minor change in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show a decline in sales from January.
Overall, look for Wednesday to be the most important day of the week due to the FOMC meeting. The rest of the week will likely be driven by outside factors such as stock movements. If the stock markets stage a significant rally or sell-off, we should see bonds move in the opposite direction. I don’t expect the economic data to influence mortgage rates unless they vary greatly from forecasts.
Craig Higdon has over 14 years experience in financing commercial loans, small business loans, construction loans, and land loans. He owns Excelsion Mortgage, a commercial mortgage brokerage offering real estate investors a wide range of resources to help them in their investment activities.
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Mortgage Loan Market Commentary
A LIGHT WEEK FOR MORTGAGE RATES
This week is fairly light with regard to scheduled economic releases. However, it does bring us another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for the markets to digest. There are three reports due to be released this week, but none of them are considered to be of high importance.
February’s Housing Starts will be released early Tuesday, but this will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. It is expected to show an increase in starts from January to February.
The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and is expected keep key short-term interest rates unchanged. What will probably cause volatility in the markets is the post-meeting statement. Traders are hoping to pick up an indication of future Fed moves, particularly if the Fed expects to cut rates anytime soon. The meeting is the second of four meetings this year that last two days and will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. Therefore, look for afternoon changes in rates Wednesday.
The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% decline, indicating that economic activity will likely slow in the coming weeks. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
February’s Existing Home Sales report will be released late Friday morning. It will also likely have little impact on mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Since it is the only data of the day, it may cause enough movement in bond prices to lead to a minor change in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show a decline in sales from January.
Overall, look for Wednesday to be the most important day of the week due to the FOMC meeting. The rest of the week will likely be driven by outside factors such as stock movements. If the stock markets stage a significant rally or sell-off, we should see bonds move in the opposite direction. I don’t expect the economic data to influence mortgage rates unless they vary greatly from forecasts.
Craig S. Higdon, “The Investment Property Insider”
www.ExcelsionMortgage.com, www.InvestmentPropertyInsider.com
Craig Higdon has over 14 years experience in financing commercial loans, small business loans, construction loans, and land loans. He owns Excelsion Mortgage, a commercial mortgage brokerage offering real estate investors a wide range of resources to help them in their investment activities.
This entry was posted on Sunday, March 18th, 2007 and is filed under -Mortgage Loan Market Commentary. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.